Category Archives: Business Planning

Free Online Video Business Planning Tutorial

My apologies if you’ve seen this elsewhere. It is available on the SBA community site, where it was posted about a year ago. I developed it originally as a donation to the SBA effort, because I believe what the SBA to help real-world entrepreneurs get started and run businesses is valuable. I cooperate with the Small Business Development Centers (check out asbdc-us.org) and the Womens Business Centers, and I’m a member of SCORE. I post this here — or repost — so you know about it.

Also, it’s a good example of an embedded Rebelmouse page in a WordPress blog. And another way to do a YouTube Playlist on a WordPress blog. If you don’t know about Rebelmouse, check it out.

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How Crazy is Time and Money Spent On This Survey?

I just have to say: wow! How much money are they spending on this survey, and how completely useless is it. A couple of pages in, it comes to a page asking me to choose three things from a list of things that this company does better than any other provider. 

I balk at that. I’m a user, and a customer, and I don’t think that company does even one of these things better than any other provider. Literally. If I didn’t like them, I wouldn’t use them. But they are a compromise between competing features. So what happens: 

  1. I tell them the truth. I check none of the boxes. I write it into the “Other (please specify)” area on the form. 
  2. And the survey stops. Dead. Nope, you, user, can’t continue your survey until you tell us the three things we do better than any other provider. So I’m gone, out of the survey, writing this blog post, far more amused than annoyed. 

Seriously, though, somebody charged with marketing came up with the bright idea of a survey, spending company resources, that pushes people for empty meaningless results. Or is this a hidden weapon in marketing-management politics, maybe, that the survey pushers wanted to prove how good they are with faked results proving they’re good? 

But they don’t have my results included. At this point, like they say on the TV show, “I’m out.” 

Pop Quiz: Do You Know How to Start a Business Plan?

People often ask me how to start a business plan. Sometimes I’ll say it depends on you, your preference, and your style, so some people do a sales forecast first, some do a vision statement. But the right answer is that you start by scheduling your monthly review and revise meeting. That’s by far the most important first step. For everybody.

Each year, as you get ready to publish the next year’s plan, schedule the plan review meetings. Use some regular meeting schedule such as the third or fourth Thursday of every month.  All the managers committed to the plan will know way ahead of time so there are few reasons to miss a meeting.

Some excuses will come up. There will be events like trade shows or client events that some managers have to attend. However, with a preplanned schedule for review meetings, these problems won’t happen that often.

If your planning process includes a good plan — with specific responsibilities assigned, managers committed, budgets, dates, and measurability — then the review meetings become easier to manage and easier to attend.  The agenda of each meeting should be predetermined by the milestones coming due soon, and milestones recently due.  Managers review and discuss plan vs. actual results, explain and analyze the differences.

At Palo Alto Software, we review coordinated milestones once a week, Tuesday mornings, in about 20 minutes.  The monthly plan vs. actual review includes financial results and other measurables — product milestones, support calls, sales events, etc. — and takes just two hours a month.

It doesn’t take that much time, but there is very little in management more valuable.  It makes your plan a planning process.

This is one of the core concepts of my Plan as you go business plan method

(Image: bigstockphoto.com page of the calendar) 

Understand the Critical Difference Between Ideas and Opportunities

Ideas are a dime a dozen. Opportunities are much more important. An opportunity is an idea that’s passed the test of planning. It has potential. You can implement it. An opportunity has some of the following elements:

  • Industry and market potential: look at market structure, industry structure, growth rate, margins, costs, etc.
  • Economics: capital requirements, fixed costs, cash flow, return on investment, risk.
  • Competitive advantage: degree of control, barriers to entry, availability of sufficient resources.
  • Management team: people who know the industry, the market, the operations, the logistics, the road to market. filter_istock_small

The business planning process is about filtering the opportunities — a precious few, requiring focus, and planning — from the ideas.

Whether you’re working on a new start-up business or growing an existing business, you need to encourage lots of ideas and then use your planning to filter them down into the real opportunities.

Remember displacement … recognize that you can’t do everything. You want your plan to help you focus in on the best opportunities among your longer list of ideas.

There is no external meter of good and bad opportunities. What you’re looking for is the right mix between business potential and your ability to reach that potential, given your position, core competence, strengths, weaknesses, and resources.

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Q & A: Investment: Size Matters

Question: Hello. I, along with a partner, have 20+ years combined experience in the carpet cleaning industry. After investing over 10k of our own money, we will still need an additional 30k for start-up of our own business. We are in the middle of writing a business plan for possible private investors or an SBA loan. I was wondering, on average, what sort of ROI or security is offered to the potential investor. Such as: A straight loan with repay plus interest? A percent of ownership? A percent of annual income? Or, is an initial offer usually propositioned by the investor? Also, what sort of numbers or percentages might be ‘entertained’ as an offer to possible investors looking at our 30k request? I’m sure it can vary quite a bit, but we’re just looking for an average to negotiate around. Any advice will be much appreciated.

Start by forgetting the idea of some arms-length investor you don’t already know. There are lots of reason. First is that it’s illegal, forbidden by the SEC except for “sophisticated investors.” Second, the $30K amount is peanuts in that context, it won’t happen, they won’t take you seriously. third, the legal costs on an arms-length investment are a lot more of that. One of the problems angel investors deal with is that it costs as much to invest $100,000 as to invest $2,000,000. Outside investment isn’t practical at those low levels. You need to be looking for a few hundred thousand at least, and have a plan that shows the need.

Furthermore, whatever the range of returns that private investors want, they don’t get any return at all until you sell your company. That’s what “exit strategy” is all about. Are you building this carpet cleaning business to sell it? I doubt it. Take a moment to consider the investors’ point of view. They spend the money to invest in your company and they get nothing back from that investment at all until they sell their shares.  Who do they sell them to?

One of the worst deals in the world is a minority share in a privately held small company without an exit strategy. The return on that is zero.

And, realistically, do you have an exit strategy when you start a carpet cleaning business? No, of course not. You want in, not out. That’s perfectly normal. Don’t apologize for that, but realize that investors aren’t interested.

You could legally get that kind of investment from close friends or family, but that’s still not a good idea. Somebody who invests $30K to your $10K is going to expect to own a substantial portion of your business. Ultimately, the $30K isn’t that hard to get, and if you get it as investment you won’t have to pay it back but you will have to sell a substantial share of your company, and you will have to live with one or more partners, and manage another relationship like a marriage. Do you and your partner want another partner? Are you ready to get into a close relationship equivalent to a marriage? Are you ready to have an investor who will essentially be the boss of you? I doubt it. I wouldn’t.

And, by the way, I do speak from personal experience. My wife and I built our business, Palo Alto Software, without outside investment. It wasn’t easy — at one point we had three mortgages and $65K in credit-card debt — but the good side is that we have 35 employees now and healthy cash flow and 80% market share in retail, as I write this, and we own it outright. It was worth it.

if you borrow what you need instead of getting investment, you have several options:

  • If you want friends and family involved, do it as a loan and write it up with the correct legal documentation so that your lender has legal recourse and you have to repay the loan and therefore there is no confusion that he or she is an owner. I recommend you use one of the family lending websites, or a lawyer, to give you the right paperwork. Search also for person-to-person lending.
  • The SBA has some programs for smaller-size loans. Generally they loan you no more than 70% of total investment required, which would mean you’d have to put in $13K to borrow $30K, but it’s a loan not an investment, so you still own your business. You can follow up on that by going to a local bank; SBA loans are managed by local banks.
  • Not that I recommend credit card debt as start-up financing, but it does happen a lot. The interest rates are very stiff, but people use credit card financing anyhow because it’s easy to get.
  • You might also be able to get a personal loan from your local bank, assuming you have assets you can afford to risk, so you can borrow $30K from the bank.

Remember of course that borrowed money is a risk because you will have to pay it back. Still, if you needed $200K to start that business we might talk about investors, but with only $30K, like it or not, the best practical answer is to borrow.

By the way, just so it doesn’t seem like I’m dodging your question, private investors generally want very high returns. They need to believe that every $30K put into your business will pay them back $1 million or so in 3 years and $3 million or so in 5-10 years. They know that only 1 of every 10 investments (or so) will be successful, so they need to believe each one has a chance to return 100 times or more the initial investment.

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Q & A: Selling Out to a Partner

Question: I own a business with my brother for the past 16 years. I decided to buy my partner/brother out of the business. The business has been running a loss for the past couple of years. How do we put a value on the business without incurring the expense of a Business Expert?

OK, stop immediately and rethink your question. Doing this deal “without incurring the expense of a business expert” is a really bad idea. The biggest danger in this deal isn’t paying too much or too little, but rather doing a deal that leaves either one of you thinking it was unfair. If ever there was a good place to spend some money on an expert, this is it.

Why? Because there are so many different ways to calculate fair value, with so many different results, that without a very good expert and full understanding as you do the deal, somebody is sure to question it later.

Start by thinking about the value of a house. Its value depends on many different factors, including size, condition, the land it’s on, the neighborhood, the needs of the owners, and changing market conditions such as interest rates and local economic factors. Valuing a business is like that but even more complex, because the underlying worth depends on future earnings, and both buyer and seller have to guess future earnings.

There are some simple standards to start with. Consider that large, publicly traded companies are worth some multiple of their annual earnings, traditionally 5 or 10 times earnings or so, but that depends on market conditions. The market values some high-tech growth companies at 50 times their earnings … that’s the play of market factors. Investors like these companies so their relative value goes up.

  • When you have a small, privately-owned company, the earnings multiples go way down. Generally buyers realize there is more risk in a small company than a big one. The increase in risk reduces the valuation.
  • Another frequently-used formula is based on sales. Your company might be worth as little as half its last year’s sales, as much as 2 or 3 times its last year’s sales, depending on the specifics of what industry, how much growth, how much future potential, etc. This is more important than the earnings-based formulas for you, of course, because you don’t have earnings. It’s quite common with high-tech companies. As with real estate, you can get data on other transactions by industry and size, which could help give you some idea of the latest trends. The formulas change quickly as market conditions change. And although the data is called “comparables,” just like in real estate, it’s a lot harder to interpret because so much depends on the specific case. Growth increases your value, decline decreases it, and there are lots of intangibles related to the future, such as location, intellectual property, etc.
  • There are lots of other formulas that might apply. Book value is assets less liabilities. Professionals might take book value and adjust for different factors.
  • To make this even more confusing, there are valuation experts certified by the IRS who will assign a value used to determine tax liabilities when companies change hands because of death of divorce. Their valuation can go very low; I know of one case in which a company worth several million dollars was certified worth only a few hundred thousand, for tax purposes, by a registered valuation expert whose verdict was accepted by the IRS.

So getting back to your question, I recommend you and your brother find somebody you can both trust, either an accountant or an attorney or maybe a consultant with great references — be more careful with consultants because there is much less regulation in consulting, therefore it’s harder to determine true professionalism — and go over all of the various formulas, together, and understand how they might yield different results.

Your goal should be getting on the same page, together, in a way that protects you against the danger of doing a deal and then, afterwards, having some new expert coming up with some logically sounding new formula that makes one or the other of you think the deal was unfair. The key to fairness is to base the transaction on a true market value, a real market value, one which will leave neither one of you vulnerable to some half-baked expert opinion after the fact.

Don’t get adversarial.  This should not be about negotiation.  Avoid having the two of you represented by two separate experts, each voicing a slanted point of view. Look for somebody you can charge with creating a fair deal, somebody who feels like he or she will be available for a pleasant lunch a year later, not taking sides. You should both be clients.

Keep in mind that the goal isn’t winning or losing the deal, it’s making this change fairly, so there are no losers, and probably (up to you) in a way that preserves the relationships.

 

Planning: Form Follows Function

(Rounding up my business planning theme this week, this is another excerpt from my book The Plan-As-You-Go Business Plan, which is posted complete online.)

Your plan-as-you-go business plan is no more than what you need to run your business. In the beginning, it might be as simple as an elevator speech. Be able to talk through those key points: the customer story, what makes you unique, how you’re focusing and on what you’re focusing, and, if it comes to that, your close — what you want from whoever is listening.

Or it might be a simple sales forecast, and perhaps, a burn rate in the very beginning because you know what you’re doing — maybe you’ve been doing it for years already and you don’t need to verbalize it right at this moment — and you’ll set those figures down and start tracking them

Planning comes in many forms. Think of it as analogous to motion in athletics. In so many different sports, the winners practice economy of motion, repeated muscle memory. Another way to look at it: in design and mechanics, the fewer moving parts, the better. If you have to squint conceptually to see the key points, squint down on the elements you’ll be able to track and then revisit.

It’s not about the text, or the form of the thing, until that becomes related to the function. When you’re doing a business plan as part of a graduate business school class, then yes, it has to be complete and look good and read well; editing and format matter. When you’re doing a plan for an investment group that is going to pass it around among the partners, then it matters. But you don’t want to get bogged down in format when it’s just you and your spouse and you simply want to think through what’s required.

So the plan is a collection of concepts in the middle, surrounded by specifics that have to be done. Around the core you put a collection of metrics to be measured and tracked (lots of them are sales, expenses, and the like, but not all), task assignments and responsibilities for different people, dates and deadlines, budgets, and so on. That’s your plan.

From that core plan, you spin off various outputs. You take the highest highlights of the plan and 60 seconds or so to explain it in an elevator speech. That’s one output. Or you write it all out carefully, and add supporting information about the market and the industry and the backgrounds of the management team, and it’s a plan document. Or you create a 20-minute 10-slide summary with PowerPoint or Keynote slides, and that’s a pitch presentation for potential investors. Or you create a cover letter or cover e-mail, about a page or so, along with a 5- to 10-page written summary, and that’s a summary memo. Or you do none of these, you simply keep that plan as a collection of bullet points, of picture financial projections, and a list of things to be done by whom and when and for how much money, and share it with your team. In that last case you don’t ever edit or polish it, or sweat the page headers and page footers or font size. You just use it to manage your company,

Notice that none of these outputs stands as something you do instead of the plan. And none of these outputs is really the plan. The plan exists at the core, and you create the outputs as needed.

With all of these various iterations and outputs, always keep assumptions on top, where you can see them for every review meeting. Minding the changing assumptions is one of the significant advantages of the plan-as-you-go approach over the more traditional methods.

I ran a business for years during which the plan was shared only between me and my wife, mostly, enhanced by sales forecasts and burn rate. During those formative years there was no need for anything else. When it was time for an elevator speech, either one of us could do it. When there was need for a written business plan — it came up first when we first set up the merchant account to be able to accept credit cards, in 1988 — then we settled down for a while and wrote it out as it was, conceptually, at that time. We always knew what we wanted to do, but we also knew our key assumptions, and we tracked them as they changed, and revised the plan. A lot of that was verbal, between two people.

As the business grew, the verbal plan with the forecast stopped working. Things became more complicated. Employees needed to know about the plan and join in its formation and then its implementation. So we moved it into bullet points on the computer, and tied those to forecasts, and began tracking in a group, in more detail.

We then began to do annual plans more formally, writing out chapters, and conducting review meetings every month. With each annual plan we’d go out and take a new fresh look at the market. We had people doing nothing but marketing, and they developed segmentations and forecasts and supporting information. It was part of their job.

Are you recognizing yourself somewhere along this line?

Eventually we wanted to bring in outside investment. That was during the dotcom boom when valuations were very high, so we thought it would be a good time to lock in the value with some cash out. We produced very formal plans every three months during that period.

The speech isn’t instead of the plan, and the pitch isn’t instead of the plan, but that doesn’t mean you plan or don’t plan if nobody outside your company is going to read about it. Your plan should always be there as the source of these outputs, so you’re ready to produce them when you need to.

Planning: It’s About Management and Accountability

(Note: this is an excerpt from my book The Plan-As-You-Go Business Plan, which is posted as a web site where you can read it online.)

Every small-business owner suffers the problem of management and accountability. It’s much easier to be friends with the people you work with than to manage them well.

Correct management means setting expectations well and then following up on results. Compare results with expectations. People on a team are held accountable only if management actually does the work of tracking results and communicating results, after the fact, to the people responsible.

Metrics are part of the problem. As a rule we don’t develop the right metrics for people. Metrics aren’t right unless the people responsible understand them and believe in them. Will the measurement scheme show good performances and bad performances?

The metrics should be built into the plan. Remember, people need metrics. People want metrics.

Then you have to track. That’s where the plan-as-you-go business plan creates a management advantage, because tracking and following up is part of its most important pieces. Set the review schedules in advance, make sure you have the right participants for the review, and then do it.

In good teams, the negative feedback is in the metric. Nobody has to scold or lecture, because the team participated in generating the plan and the team reviews it, and good performances make people proud and happy, and bad performances make people embarrassed. It happens automatically. It’s part of the planning process.

And you must avoid the crystal ball and chain. Sometimes — actually, often — metrics go sour because assumptions have changed. Unforeseen events happened. You manage these times collaboratively, separating the effort from the results. People on your team see that and they believe in the process, and they’ll continue to contribute.

Planning and Paradox

Business planning is full of paradox. It’s a matter of balance. Here are some interesting examples.

  • Business plans are always wrong, but nonetheless vital. Wrong because they’re predicting the future and we’re human, we’re fallible, so we don’t get it right. Vital because we need the plan in order to track where, how, and what direction it was wrong, which becomes planning process, which becomes management. I deal with this a lot. 
  • You have to focus to survive, but you need new markets to grow. So which is it? Have you heard of the corridor principal? It says business strategy is like walking down a long corridor full of doors. Open every door to investigate and you never get anywhere. Ignore all the doors to just keep going and you never get any new opportunities.
  • I’ve wrote in my Plan as you Go Business Plan book: “it’s better to have a mediocre strategy consistently applied over three or more years than a series of brilliant strategies, each applied for six months or so.” So do you stick to the plan regardless, like running into a brick wall? Or do you revise? When do you revise? How do you know? There’s paradox, where the human judgment comes in to override the formulaic.

(Image: shutterstock.com)

Crystal Ball and Chain

This is an answer to a question I get way too often. I call it the “Crystal Ball and Chain” problem. I’ve run into it several times as I’ve introduced the planning process into a new company or organization.

People in the organization sometimes fear business planning. In the background, the fear is related to accountability and commitment. Usually they don’t realize it. They state their objection as:

“But how can I possibly know today what’s going to happen six months from now? Isn’t that just a waste of time? Can’t it actually be counter-productive, because it distracts us, and we spend time trying to figure out things in the future?’

I’ve heard this from some people who really did seem to be worried about accountability and commitment, and I’ve heard it from some who were stars on the team, not worried at all about their own position, but legitimately worried about the best thing for management and getting work done.

The answer is that projecting future business activities isn’t a ball and chain at all, because in the right planning process the existence of the plan helps you manage effectively.

Here’s a concrete example: it’s September and you are developing your plan for next year, which includes an important trade show in April. You plan on that trade show and set up a budget for expenses related to that trade show. Even though it’s September, you have a pretty good idea that this will happen in April.

When January rolls around, though, it turns out that the trade show that normally takes place in April will be in June this year. Does that mean the plan was wasted time? Absolutely not! It is precisely because you have a plan running that you catch the change in January, move the expense to June, and adjust some other activities accordingly.

In this example, the plan isn’t a brick wall you run into or a ball and chain that drags you down; no, it’s a helpful tool, like a map or even a GPS device, because it helps you keep track of priorities and manage and adjust the details as they roll into view.

It’s normal for the crystal ball and chain to appear as an objection when a planning process is introduced. The solution is simply good management. The people involved in implementing the plan learn with time how regular plan review sessions help them stay on top of things, and when assumptions change, how the plan changes. Changes are discussed, nobody gets fired, and you have better management.

The underlying idea here is directly related to the paradox in yesterday’s post: business plans are always wrong, but still vital to good management.

(Image: my mashup of two shutterstock.com images)