Category Archives: Technology

People Are Annoying -0r- Why I Want to Sell to Commander Data

Marketing, Technology, Writing

If only we could just target computers to buy our stuff, instead of people. Some days I want to sell to that guy Commander Data in the Star Trek TV series and movies. He was a computer.

Disclosure: I’m not a Star Trek fan. I can’t even say “trekkie.” In fact, I know of Commander Data only because I was dragged to a Star Trek movie by a beloved family member. I thought he was the best character in it. If you don’t know him, here’s a YouTube link (or you can click the video below).

So why Commander Data? Because he isn’t human, which means he doesn’t have two extremely annoying human traits. He doesn’t lie, and he does read.

1. People Lie

This comes up today because of  Who’s Who and Who’s Not in the Freakonomics blog yesterday. (That’s one of the world’s great blogs, by the way.) Steven Levitt tracks some research related to the who’s who business. More than half the who’s who claims of military honors were bogus. People lie.

People are even more willing to lie when it’s a survey, or a form to fill out, or a poll. (Have you heard about the Bradley Effect, by the way?) When I was at Creative Strategies International we used to do polls of people’s intention to buy, and the respondents were always exaggerating their budget. Ask people in a survey how many hours they spend watching television, or what their income is, or books they read, and they lie. We know about the problem in resumes.

I can’t resist adding an old joke my mother used to tell, maybe just because it’s a great memory — she was born in 1923, and died years ago of cancer — but it fits. The frat boy asks the girl: “Do you drink?” “No.” “Do you smoke?” “No.” “Do you neck?” (And for those of you who don’t get that expression, cool it, this was my mother, after all, and she’s referring to the 1940s). “No.”

“So what do you do?” the boy asks, with a bit of frustration.

“I lie,” she answers.

2. People Don’t Read

People don’t read instructions. They don’t read manuals. They don’t read signs. They don’t read labels. It’s amazing how much you can’t communicate with simple signs.

We had a software problem, years ago, that we thought we’d solve by putting a dialog that made sure people understood the tradeoffs in taking one path in the options. Nobody read it. People called to complain. So we added a click, stopping the program, so they had to click “OK” to indicate they’d read and understood. Nobody read it. We put it in red. Nobody read it.

On the Web, you try to clarify commercial problems, putting it in simple words, as simple as you know how to do. Still, half the people don’t read it. Put it in red, and require a click, and they still won’t read it.

Conclusion? I like Commander Data. He doesn’t lie. And he reads.

Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

Business Planning, Current Affairs, Technology

So, given the last few weeks, how would you like to do a 25-year forecast of major trends? Me neither. But I would like to read one. I got an update last week from the World Future Society, which has just published its WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years.

Here are the top five forecasts:

  • Forecast #1: The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025.

I can’t resist commenting on this one. A couple of points bother me. First, why is this number one on the list? Look at number five, for example, or number three. Second, why isn’t "water shortages will affect two thirds of the world population" number one on the list (and it’s not even on it)?

  • Forecast #2: Fashion will go wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile industry. Researchers in smart fabrics and intelligent textiles (SFIT) are working with the fashion industry to bring us color-changing or perfume-emitting jeans, wristwatches that work as digital wallets, and running shoes like the Nike +iPod that watch where you’re going (possibly allowing others to do the same). Powering these gizmos remains a key obstacle. But industry watchers estimate that a $400 million market for SFIT is already in place and predict that smart fabrics could revitalize the U.S. and European textile industry.
  • Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with former-Soviet, now-Russian missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers.
  • Forecast #4: Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society. Sophisticated new optical scanning technologies could, in the next five years, be a boon for currency counterfeiters, so societies are increasingly putting aside their privacy fears about going cashless. Meanwhile, cashless technologies are improving, making them far easier and safer to use.
  • Forecast #5: The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event. The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities’ economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century.

To me it’s not just an interesting set of predictions. It’s also a view into the art of forecasting — and I say art, not science. With a good forecast, as we sit in today and look at it, we can see the bricks that it’s built from; we can see why each point makes sense.

It’s also hard for me to understand the order of importance here. I noted that in the comment in the middle, but, on the same line, how does fashion go wired become more important than a significant distinction event.

Still, well done, very well presented, and thought provoking.

Macs on the Rise

Technology

Who doesn’t want to be socioeconomically elite, particularly if it comes with youth and money? I posted here about my happy return to Macintosh as my home desktop, and now I’ve got a press release saying I’m actually one of a bunch of us. And, furthermore, a group I’d like to be a member of:

Apple has increased its Home notebook PC share to now rank #4 in the home installed base. It has strengthened its position among the socioeconomically elite, attracting the younger, more highly-educated, and higher income households, as well as the self-employed.

Interesting data from a research group I trust. Dan Ness, owner of MetaFacts, used to work with me at Creative Strategies, back in the old days, and occasionally directly with Palo Alto Software as well, after I’d left Creative Strategies. His company has a new study out showing that Macs are up to fourth place in home computer installed base, and, apparently, growing.

"Like the camel slipping its nose under the tent, Apple is reaching into American households as the 2nd or 3rd Home PC," said Dan Ness, Principal Analyst at MetaFacts. "Where Apple shines is as the 3rd PC, ranking fifth with 8% of 3rd Home PCs, and ranking fourth in notebook PCs, also at 8% of the installed base."
Apple home computers are used differently than Windows home PCs, more often for web content creation, graphics, and personal activities. Twenty-one percent of Apple Home PCs are used in public places, nearly double the 12% of Windows Home PCs that are used in public.
"If you look around at a Starbucks or cybercafe, you might think the whole world’s gone to Apple," said Dan Ness, Principal Analyst at MetaFacts. "Apple users are very active and use their notebooks in more locations than Windows notebook users."
The survey also revealed strong repurchase brand loyalty. "Apple continues to command the strongest repurchase intent of any PC brand. More than four in five (81%) of households with Apple as their primary Home PC plan to buy the same brand – Apple – for their next Home PC," said Ness.

Here are some other interesting tidbits from the Metafacts release:

  • Workplace Apples are dominated by 5 occupational groups: Teacher, Artist/Designer/Performer, Management, Clerical, Consultants 
  • iPod penetration among Apple Households is extremely strong, and also strong in non-Apple households yet with weaker buying plans 
  • The installed base of Apple Home computers are newer than the base of Windows Home PCs 
  • Apple Households shop differently than non-Apple Households, more likely to be in a Barnes & Noble, Borders, or Target, and less often in a Wal-Mart 
  • Apple’s retail stores are attracting many non-Apple households, a strong positive sign for Apple 
  • The kind of non-Apple households shopping or buying at Apple retail have many more kids, also a strong positive future sign for Apple.

These results remind me of something else: earlier this summer Seth Godin posted on the merits of marketing to Firefox users instead of the general public, because they tended to be more sophisticated. Now Mac users are more educated and discerning. What the world needs, no doubt, is more status symbols.

Spellchecker and politics

Creativity, Technology, Writing

I found this interesting. It was in David Pogue’s column last week. He’s the New York Times Technology writer:

Q: David: I’ve noticed this for a year, and have not been able to get Microsoft to change it: Type "Obama" or "obama" in Microsoft Word or Outlook, and the spelling checker recommends "Osama" as the corrected spelling. How could this continue month after month, especially now that Mr. Obama is likely to be the Democratic candidate for president? Hope you can connect with appropriate folks at Microsoft and get this changed.

A: Well, it does seem like a silly glitch. But I’m not sure even I could convince Microsoft to release a new version of Microsoft Office software just to correct a single entry in the spelling dictionary. But if it helps, here you go: How about it, Microsoft?

David Pogue’s Gadget List of 2008

Technology

I look forward to David Pogue’s columns in the New York Times (he’s the technology writer), and particularly like his videos — the iPhone musical one is a classic — so I’m passing on this gadget list. He writes about his favorite cameras, cellphones, computers, even his favorite car (Prius).

This is a guy that can probably get whatever he wants for free, because all the manufacturers would love to have him review their stuff. So what he recommends is probably pretty solid. I did notice that he mentions buying this and that, as in he bought it, and didn’t receive it for free, which is interesting. And makes sense — journalistic integrity and all that — but still, good to note.

Business Value of Blogging, Twitter, and All That

Marketing, Technology, Web/Tech, Weblogs

They talk about blogging, Twitter, social media; why it’s good for business, why not, how to do it, and why. Humbug. The topic is off base. It’s not whether its good or bad, but does it fit with everything else you’re doing. Does it fit with your strategy? Does it match? 

A couple of generations ago business discovered toll-free telephone numbers, the once-famous 800 numbers that most of us take for granted. There was a rush on toll-free numbers in the beginning. Then businesses started to discover that a toll-free telephone number did them no good without marketing to make the damn number ring. The number itself was neutral; a pipe with no flow.

That’s the deal with blogging, Twitter, etc.; none of these is either good or bad for business, in and of themselves. It has to be related to the rest of the business. What does blogging do for your strategy? Where does Twitter fit into the marketing mix? What are the metrics? How will you know whether it’s working or not?

Here’s a thought for you: if you are into this new world (which, I suppose, is likely, since you’re reading this) then start figuring out how you’re going to measure the impact on your business. Try this exercise: look at your bank balance as it is with the new media efforts. Consider what it would have been if you hadn’t been working the new media. Which would be higher? 

Announcing the Energy Climate Era: Hot, Flat, Crowded

Current Affairs, Green Business, Technology

The buzz is growing very fast on what might have been the keynote speech at the Aspen Ideas Festival last week. I picked it up at Huffington Post, in a post titled Thomas Friedman Calls for Green Revolution. Here’s the lead: 

At the Aspen Ideas Festival Thursday, New York Times columnist and The World Is Flat author Thomas Friedman gave a preview of his new book, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution — and How It Can Renew America, which comes out in September. The book’s main argument is that the convergence of global warming, global flattening (the rise of middle classes all over the world), and global crowding (the population boom) is driving five key trends that will define the 21st century.

Friedman argues that those five trends — energy and resource supply and demand, petro-dictatorship, biodiversity loss, climate change, and energy poverty — have all been driven past a tipping point such that they have created a new era of history: the energy climate era.

I heard second hand, from someone who was there, that all the buzz was about that speech. The summary on Huffington today includes three short videos you’ll want to see. Here’s the link again: Tom Friedman Calls For Green Revolution.

Update: On-Demand Softwide Retail Growing in the UK

Marketing, Technology

In January I visited with Daniel Doll-Steinberg of  Tribeka Ltd., an innovative UK software retailer with a new idea for the channel, and posted An Old New Channel for Software on this blog. I was impressed. I’ve been following software retail since 1993, and there certainly seems to be some room for change.

So here’s an update on that story. PC Retail Magazine says On demand will change UK retail.

On demand retail is set to explode in the UK over the next year according to a report by Screen Digest. It suggests that the DVD side of the industry will be worth $1 billion alone by the end of 2012.

The report comes out just months after On Demand opened its first concession in Border’s Oxford Street Store, while Tribeka COO Stephen Precious stated that the firm is aiming to have the increase in the number of stores operating its SoftWide technology into double figures before the end of this year.

“At the end of the year we’re hoping to have installations reaching into double-digits in the UK and Europe.” And it’s looking increasingly likely that it will succeed with Precious telling PC Retail that it is currently in negotiations with some of the biggest names in UK and European retail, with some expected to be rolled out before the end of summer.

It’s nice to see something solving real problems: a compromise between giving customers software to browse in person, in the store, but without requiring normal inventory handling. It really is “on demand” and I think it makes sense.

Anticipating The New iPhone Apps — Can They Do One to Make the Battery Last Longer?

Technology

I admit I continue to like my iPhone and I don’t regret the purchase, even though I was one of those who paid more to get it sooner. And I’m really looking forward to what David Pogue calls iPhone 2.0 in his column,

Hello BlackBerry, Meet the iPhone in yesterday’s New York Times.

But damn, I wish the battery lasted longer. Every time I really use it, a day’s worth of use gets the battery into that nasty edge of power area. It turns the battery icon red and complains, and warns, and complains.

In his technology column, David Pogue says:

The release of iPhone 2.0 is over three months away, but I’ll stick my neck out and make a prediction: it will be a gigantic success, spreading the iPhone’s popularity both upward, into the corporate market, and downward, into the hands of the masses. iPhone 2.0 will turn this phone into an engineering tool, a game console, a free-calls Skype phone, a business tool, a dating service, an e-book reader, a chat room, a database, an Etch-a-Sketch, and that’s on Day One.

And I say that’s all cool, and I’m looking forward to it, but I’ll end up like I now am, loving my iPhone for all its cool features but using it mainly as a phone, because if I get a lot of email with it, or use it as an ipod, it runs out of battery before I run out of day.

Do You Agree? Should We Ignore These Trends?

Technology

I’ve posted about Gene Marks’ Business Week columns before. He writes well and he’s fun to disagree with. With everybody saying mostly the same things about tech trends these days, Gene’s contrarian view is refreshing. Of course he’s mostly wrong with this list, but that makes it more fun. Here we have Gene Marks’ Tech Trends to Ignore, with some of my commentary added. 

  • Radio Frequency ID (RFID). It hasn’t been easy or cheap. Many smaller companies can ignore RFID until the technology matures and comes down in price.

But how cool is it when it works? Just wave your card around. Have you been skiing lately in one of the bigger resorts that uses RFID to manage your lift ticket? Why doesn’t the hotel elevator know which floor I’m on? Oh, and by the way, do you have a passport? That’s got RFID in it too, at least the new ones do. And meanwhile, whether we ignore it or not, there are those hacks …

  • Virtualization. But we small businesses don’t need to run Microsoft Outlook in a virtual world. We can barely get it to work right in the real world. This technology needs more time before it makes sense for small business.

And I say hooray for Windows on a Mac. It works. It’s worth it. So I’m about to suggest that this is a counter example for Gene, but then — gulp — look at what’s two points below this one on this list. So much for the Mac.

  • Software as a Service. Software in this form makes sense for certain customers—among them, trusting souls comfortable letting other companies hold onto their data; honest, hard-working people who believe the Internet is completely reliable and that data will be secure and can be retrieved regardless of what happens to their provider; business owners who are O.K. paying a monthly amount per user that generally winds up being more expensive over time than purchasing a system outright. Then there are the rest of us—cynical, slothful, apathetic, and miserable. We don’t trust anyone—especially with customer and financial data. For SaaS, the jury’s still out. But keep an eye on it nonetheless.

I suppose, but seriously, have you seen Google Apps? Now take a look at Netbooks. And watch the numbers on how online bookkeeping is going.

Something has changed.  I remember talking to a very high-level executive at Intuit 10 years ago when they started to look at online bookkeeping. He said "the analysts want it and the journalists want it, but the customers don’t." That was then, this is now. Customers want it.

Who would you rather have backing up your data: you? your bright nephew? Or Google, Intuit, or Amazon?

  • Apple. We all agree that Intuit (INTU), the maker of Quickbooks, has a lot of small business customers. So why doesn’t Intuit sell a multi-user version of Quickbooks for the Mac? Simple. Most small businesses, other than printers or design firms, aren’t using the Mac. There’s more choice in Microsoft Windows business applications. And there are fewer IT firms providing Mac support. It takes too much effort to be a rebel. So we cave and use Microsoft. But watch out. Those Apple Store geniuses are going to have their day. Every high school and college kid I know has grown up on iPods, Macs, and other Apple products that are just plain better than products made by Microsoft. And when they run their own companies in just a few short years, what do you think they’ll be asking for? You won’t be ignoring Apple in the future.

OK now, this is getting more fun. Gene’s saying ignore Apple, but then he seems to conclude no, never mind, pay attention. My company is done ignoring Apple. We’re paying attention to Mac users now.

  • Anything Green. Do we not care about the environment? Yes, but not enough to waste money on this year’s fire drill. If you can find a technology that helps the environment and is good for your business then go for it. And please let me know too, as I’m still trying to find it.

Now that’s a real challenge. This one is so obvious that I posted A Green Challenge about it on Up And Running blog Friday. I pointed out that smart venture money and lots and lots of startups are betting on everything they can find that’s green.

So with that, I say that’s enough of my commentary. Here is the rest of Gene’s list.

  • Facebook and MySpace. Unless you’re hawking Hannah Montana memorabilia, there’s not going to be much of an audience for your product here. Small businesses should ignore these places for now. Want to join a great networking site with business benefits? Try Linkedin.com or Plaxo.com. 
  • Open-Source Software. Sure, open-source software may be "free," but the propeller-heads you need to actually get it working, customized, and supported aren’t. Spending time customizing a software product, just because it’s "open source," doesn’t mean that time is well spent. Business owners should stick to the boring, off-the-shelf stuff for now. 
  • Windows XP. It’s time to start ignoring Windows XP, too. Like it or not, the Microsoft operating system for businesses won’t be sold after June 30. We are going to be forced to drink the Vista Kool-Aid. It still starts up slow. It still doesn’t work with all devices. It will require a server with more memory than an elephant. But hey, now we get to see our invoices in 3D! And we’ll all feel so much more secure, too, right? Whoever said that life gets more complex the older you get definitely works at Microsoft. Goodbye XP and Godspeed. We’ll miss you. 
  • Microsoft and Yahoo. Frankly, we really don’t care about Microsoft’s attempt to buy Yahoo. Let us know when it’s all sorted out. Then we’ll Google the story. 
  • Virtual Worlds. There’s been a lot of hype around virtual societies like Second Life. Some big companies are taking this stupidity seriously and buying "real estate" to advertise products. These are the same big companies that spend big money on overpriced consultants and gold-painted corporate jets. Small business owners should ignore these virtual worlds—until they find a way for a virtual guy named "Knuckles" to beat the stuffing out of a real-life delinquent customer.